The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new patch of disturbed weather as it approaches the Caribbean while monitoring two other systems in the Atlantic.
According to the NHC Tropical Outlook at 2 p.m., a tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic saw its chance of formation drop to 0%, as forecasters noted a lack of actual rain in the tropical wave.
A new system, however, just a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, although disorganized now, could develop within days as it approaches the southeastern Caribbean, said the forecaster.
They gave this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next five days.
Not yet over water is another system with similar potential, which forecasters expect to become a tropical wave when it emerges off the coast of West Africa in the Far Eastern Atlantic.
“Environmental conditions could support slow development of this system late into the weekend or over the weekend as it moves west at 10 to 15 mph,” the NHC said.
It also has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next five days.
The 2022 hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 1. 30, and has produced only three named storms, all tropical storms, so far. Despite the low numbers so far, more potential systems are likely to form during what is now known as the peak of hurricane season which runs from mid-August to mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently reaffirmed that it expects this season to become yet another above-average hurricane season, expecting 14 to 21 named storms. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
This follows 2020’s record 30 named storms and the third largest on record with 21 systems in 2021.